Two for the price of one: What to expect from Moscow property markets and What to expect from 2018 year end valuations

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I promised in my last blog (Decoding the Russian enigma) a further post dealing with my expectations for the Russian property markets. I have also been considering giving my thoughts on what to expect in general terms (i.e. they cannot be held against me in specific valuations!) for 2018 year end valuations. We are approaching […]

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Russia: New old challenges

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Russia’s nascent economic recovery from the 2014-2016 recession and recent stabilisation have been disrupted by fresh US sanctions. The April round has shifted the USD/RUB exchange rate by about 7% weaker, to c.62. The combined impact of the draft bill introduced by a number of US Senators led by Lindsey Graham on 1 August and […]

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Russia: (Even) lower inflation, lower interest rates

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The Bank of Russia (CBR) has just announced the Board decision to cut its key rate by 25bp, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was broadly anticipated, although following the January inflation print, some market analysts had called for a 50bp rate cut. Inflation dropped to a new historical low of 2.2% YoY in January […]

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Five reasons not to be fearful about the Fed rate lift-off

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The Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates by 25 basis points marks a significant turning point in the global economic cycle. It has been a long time coming, but the decision was carefully signalled and well executed, and there are good reasons why occupiers and investors in Europe should remain calm about this […]

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Road to recovery – which path are we on?

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Concerns about the fragility of the Eurozone recovery have intensified since the spring. Against a background of conflict in Ukraine, slower export markets and deflationary forces at home, confidence has faltered. Growth continued in these markets, but it has been increasingly insipid. By the autumn, the fear was growing that the single currency area could […]

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Forecasting: It’s a funny old game

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Has it been 4 years already? With just a few days to go until the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil, the question on everyone’s lips is ‘Who will emerge victorious? ‘ This year’s hosts are tipped to clinch the title, with fellow South Americans Argentina likely to be hot on their heels. But […]

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