Russia: (Even) lower inflation, lower interest rates

The Bank of Russia (CBR) has just announced the Board decision to cut its key rate by 25bp, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was broadly anticipated, although following the January inflation print, some market analysts had called for a 50bp rate cut. Inflation dropped to a new historical low of 2.2% YoY in January from 2.5% in December, delivering another surprise to the CBR which had been calling for the disinflationary trend to reverse since at least September.

Inflation and CBR key rate

Inflation and CBR key rate
Source: Rosstat, CBR

 

In the statement accompanying today’s decision the CBR made some notable changes compared to several previous meetings. It acknowledged that inflation will remain low at least throughout H1 2018 and that the risk of not meeting the 4% inflation target this year had become low. Taking this into account, the CBR would make a (temporary) shift of its policy focus from inflation to supporting growth. The latter would be implemented by further rate cuts. While reiterating the pledge for policy softening, the CBR announced the intention to complete the transition to a “neutral” policy stance faster, by the end of the year. In numbers, this translates to the key rate reaching 6.0-6.5% by December.

For the real estate sector, the main implications are as follows. Consistently low inflation – well below the CBR 4% target – will support the consumer. Demand from retail and warehouse tenants should reflect this in the near future.

The trend of declining key rate will continue pushing loan – and deposit – rates lower. As the new construction cycle starts, this factor will help it to gain the traction earlier and faster. Although (a) still high vacancies, and (b) values still below construction costs will likely leave the developers in a cautious mood, keeping the new supply at moderate levels.

About the Author

Vladimir is a recognized expert with over 20 years of experience in research in macroeconomics, capital markets, investment, and real estate. Vladimir has joined JLL in April 2016, where he has held the Head of Research position in 2007-2010, before leaving to take up the role of Chief Economist, Russia & CIS at Barclays Capital. Most recently, Vladimir worked at Sberbank CIB as Senior Strategist. From 2003-2005 he has led the Research department at Rosbank and then was a Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital. Vladimir has received several prestigious awards and nominations. He has been voted the best economist in the Institutional Investor All Russia Research Team survey, the ‘Best Russian Real Estate Analyst’ by the Euromoney Real Estate Awards, and has been a member of the top-ranked research teams in Eleonora Surveys. He holds a BA in Mathematical Economics from Moscow State University, a MA in International and Development Economics from Yale University and a PhD in Economics from Duke University.

Comments

  1. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Excellent data. Appreciate it!

    price for viagra difference between viagra cialis and levitra
    viagra for sale uk
    from uk viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  2. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Nicely put, Kudos!

    taking viagra for pseudoephidrine female ingesting viagra
    viagra generic
    sub lingual viagra response – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  3. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Nicely put. Regards!

    cialis tadalafil beter dan viagra 50 mg viagra
    cheap viagra
    increased anger taking viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  4. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Many thanks, Numerous tips!

    viagra best price on net maker of celebrex and viagra
    generic viagra online
    generic viagra sold in chinatown nyc – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  5. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Awesome material, Appreciate it!

    viagra discounts senators viagra sale fast shipping
    generic viagra
    lady’s viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  6. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Regards. Quite a lot of info!

    viagra meltabs melt tabs viagra over the counter substitute
    viagra without a doctor prescription
    viagra and heart disease – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  7. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    You actually stated this well.

    st martin buying viagra how long effects viagra
    viagra for women
    viagra for women pink pill – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  8. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Useful advice. With thanks.

    viagra wont work viagra ad on shawn hanedy
    buy viagra
    viagra damage – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  9. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    You revealed this perfectly!

    buy viagra com mad about you viagra
    viagra without a doctors prescription
    natural viagra subsitute – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  10. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Very good data, Appreciate it.

    viagra online switzerland buy viagra pills cheeer
    viagra without a doctor prescription
    viagra fast – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  11. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Whoa tons of amazing tips.

    instructions viagra viagra trial
    viagra 100mg
    viagra additative – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  12. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thanks! An abundance of write ups.

    10 vs 20 viagra cheap prescription viagra
    generic viagra 100mg
    buy viagra in london england – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  13. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Beneficial facts. Many thanks!

    viagra use tips viagra age
    viagra for women
    viagra slaes – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  14. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thank you, Loads of stuff!

    mechanism of viagra subaction showcomments viagra archive newest
    viagra generic
    before and after viagra – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  15. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Helpful forum posts. Kudos!

    viagra versus levetra viagra generic price iframe
    viagra without a doctor prescription
    xtabentun mexican viagra – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  16. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thank you, I value this!

    how to obtain viagra samples can you combine viagra and cialis
    generic viagra
    viagra ill effects – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  17. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Superb postings. With thanks!

    free viagra sample weight lifting with viagra
    cheap viagra
    find viagra free edinburgh pages posted – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  18. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Incredible all kinds of useful information.

    natural viagra alternatives viagra help women
    buy viagra
    using viagra and cialis – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  19. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Cheers. Quite a lot of content.

    viagra and orgasm should teens use viagra
    buy viagra online
    chronic use of viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  20. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Amazing forum posts. Kudos.

    free sample viagra uk viagra symtpms
    cheap viagra
    viagra ice cream – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  21. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    You actually said it effectively.

    side effects of warfarin and viagra viagra for doggies
    viagra generic
    silagra pharmacy brand name viagra cumwithuscom – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  22. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Nicely put. Regards.

    viagras powered by phpbb can viagra cause restless leg syndrome
    cheap viagra
    about levitra viagra cialis – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  23. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thanks, An abundance of content!

    viagra gross per year viagra supplies
    viagra for sale uk
    falsificacion de viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  24. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    You reported this really well.

    viagra find edinburgh viagra serendipity inventor conference
    buy viagra
    enhancing the viagra review – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  25. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Seriously plenty of valuable material.

    watermellon an viagra viagra on the internet
    generic viagra
    buy viagra search find free – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  26. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Great postings, Thank you!

    norvasc viagra adverse reaction viagra in landzorote
    viagra without a doctors prescription
    viagra canida – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  27. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thanks a lot, Loads of write ups.

    viagra napewno mi zagra can a man take pink viagra
    generic viagra 100mg
    propecia viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  28. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Superb facts. Thanks a lot.

    buy non-generic viagra online does viagra expire
    buy generic viagra
    viagra free sites computer news find – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  29. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Nicely put. Many thanks!

    viagra and liver viagra boy
    buy generic viagra
    viagra super active sildenafil – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  30. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Kudos, Useful information.

    viagra plus muse viagra content
    generic viagra 100mg
    blog viagra use – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  31. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Kudos! I like it!

    kamagra viagra viagra by mail order
    buy generic viagra
    viagra salute – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  32. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Terrific facts. Thank you.

    viagra generika schweiz viagra falls psych pineapple spotting
    buy viagra online
    mitral valve prolapse and viagra – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  33. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Thanks, Valuable stuff!

    cheapest price for viagra works faster viagra cialis
    generic viagra 100mg
    viagra napewno mi zagra – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  34. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Regards. I value it.

    celais and viagra interaction between eutirox and viagra
    generic viagra
    official viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  35. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Whoa a good deal of wonderful tips.

    st martin buying viagra viagra celebrity endorsments
    viagra pills
    viagra knights – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  36. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    With thanks, I appreciate this.

    generic viagra india review medical research on viagra
    viagra without a doctor prescription
    pork and viagra – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  37. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    This is nicely put. .

    new york cialis soft about viagra viagra for women testostrone
    viagra online
    viagra price uk – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  38. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Effectively expressed truly. !

    best rated generic viagra online stores viagra reliabel testimonial
    buy viagra
    the effect of viagra – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  39. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Truly many of useful tips.

    trans viagra viagra kamagra cheap
    viagra without a doctors prescription
    viagra and crack – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  40. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    With thanks. Valuable information!

    consumer reports viagra watermellon viagra news
    generic viagra online
    buy viagra paypal – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  41. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    You reported it fantastically!

    viagra and eye problems my viagra pornstar
    viagra without a doctors prescription
    what is best viagra cialis – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  42. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Nicely put, Thanks a lot.

    viagra doesnt work for me viagra and nitrates in th er
    cheap viagra
    10mg vs 20mg viagra experiance – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  43. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    You stated that perfectly!

    discount generic viagra discount generic viagra viagra tablet cutters
    generic viagra online
    try all 3 viagra cialis levitra – https://genericviagrarcp.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  44. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    This is nicely said. .

    buy viagra proffesional side effects viagra flushing
    buy viagra online
    buying viagra in a canadian pharmacy – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  45. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Wow plenty of awesome facts.

    viagra vs cyalis viagra sildenafil cialis tadalafil dosage use
    viagra online
    between difference levitra viagra – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  46. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    With thanks, Lots of posts!

    generic viagra capsules watermelon rhine natural viagra
    viagra for sale uk
    compra viagra italia – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  47. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Whoa loads of wonderful tips.

    discount generic viagra online pharmacy prescription drug viagra
    viagra without a doctors prescription
    consumer coplaints against netdr viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  48. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Really loads of amazing info.

    buy viagra online purchase patient responses to viagra
    generic viagra
    cheap canadian generic viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  49. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Regards. Very good information!

    us discount viagra best prices on viagra in drugstores
    viagra for women
    kaboom viagra – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  50. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Amazing stuff. Thank you.

    overnight viagra viagra l477
    viagra for sale uk
    prednisilone and viagra – https://genericviagramsl.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  51. LarryGlits

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Wow tons of helpful tips.

    united states discount viagra viagra chewing gum
    viagra online
    viagra success story – https://genericviagrantx.com

    Geraldkib
    Dwaynepense
    KevinNUS

  52. Мария Наумова

    Благодарю! Интересно написано ))

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*