Is Tower Hamlets the best place to build homes in the UK? Based on population forecasts alone, it could well be.
Figures from the leading macroeconomic forecasting consultancy, Oxford Economics show the population of Tower Hamlets in East London is expected to rise by just under a quarter over the next 15 years.
The numbers are underpinned by birth and death rates as well as predictions on net migration based on the economic growth prospects for the area. London boroughs dominate the UK population growth league table making up 13 of the top 20 – see the table below.
|Borough||Population 2014||Population 2030||% change|
|1. Tower Hamlets, London||277,700||345,200||24.3|
|2. Kingston upon Thames, London||169,700||210,400||24.0|
|3. Barking and Dagenham, London||197,000||243,600||23.7|
|4. Southwark, London||302,900||372,700||23.0|
|5. Merton, London||206,300||252,100||22.2|
|6. Richmond upon Thames, London||193,400||235,500||21.8|
|7. Watford, Hertfordshire||95,200||115,700||21.5|
|8. Barnet, London||374,800||454,500||21.3|
|9. St Albans, Hertfordshire||144,900||175,400||21.0|
|10. Hertsmere, Hertfordshire||102,400||123,700||20.8|
|11. Bromley, London||321,900||386,800||20.2|
|12. Sutton, London||198,600||238,500||20.1|
|13. Aylesbury Vale, Buckinghamshire||183,300||220,100||20.1|
|14. Welwyn Hatfield, Hertfordshire||115,400||138,500||20.0|
|15. Hounslow, London||265,800||318,300||19.8|
|16. Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire||122,000||145,900||19.5|
|17. South Northamptonshire, Northamptonshire||88,400||105,600||19.3|
|18. Hillingdon, London||291,400||347,700||19.0|
|19. Islington, London||217,900||259,400||19.0|
|20. Hammersmith & Fulham, London||180,900||215,300||18.9|
Ultimately the forecasts are demand-led. They do not take account of the local supply profile of an area; whether the local council is development friendly or whether there are appropriate land opportunities for new housing.
But the forecasts help to illustrate a growing supply-demand imbalance across the UK, despite policy attempts to increase the number of new homes in the UK.
JLL’s recent report The Supply Conundrum shows that new home completions in England totalled 135,000 last year and have averaged 140,000 over the last 20 years – well below the estimated national need of 250,000 homes a year.