Where to build for London’s booming population

Is Tower Hamlets the best place to build homes in the UK? Based on population forecasts alone, it could well be.

Figures from the leading macroeconomic forecasting consultancy, Oxford Economics show the population of Tower Hamlets in East London is expected to rise by just under a quarter over the next 15 years.

The numbers are underpinned by birth and death rates as well as predictions on net migration based on the economic growth prospects for the area. London boroughs dominate the UK population growth league table making up 13 of the top 20 – see the table below.

Borough Population 2014 Population 2030 % change
1. Tower Hamlets, London 277,700 345,200 24.3
2. Kingston upon Thames, London 169,700 210,400 24.0
3. Barking and Dagenham, London 197,000 243,600 23.7
4. Southwark, London 302,900 372,700 23.0
5. Merton, London 206,300 252,100 22.2
6. Richmond upon Thames, London 193,400 235,500 21.8
7. Watford, Hertfordshire 95,200 115,700 21.5
8. Barnet, London 374,800 454,500 21.3
9. St Albans, Hertfordshire 144,900 175,400 21.0
10. Hertsmere, Hertfordshire 102,400 123,700 20.8
11. Bromley, London 321,900 386,800 20.2
12. Sutton, London 198,600 238,500 20.1
13. Aylesbury Vale, Buckinghamshire 183,300 220,100 20.1
14. Welwyn Hatfield, Hertfordshire 115,400 138,500 20.0
15. Hounslow, London 265,800 318,300 19.8
16. Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire 122,000 145,900 19.5
17. South Northamptonshire, Northamptonshire 88,400 105,600 19.3
18. Hillingdon, London 291,400 347,700 19.0
19. Islington, London 217,900 259,400 19.0
20. Hammersmith & Fulham, London 180,900 215,300 18.9

 

Ultimately the forecasts are demand-led. They do not take account of the local supply profile of an area; whether the local council is development friendly or whether there are appropriate land opportunities for new housing.

But the forecasts help to illustrate a growing supply-demand imbalance across the UK, despite policy attempts to increase the number of new homes in the UK.
JLL’s recent report The Supply Conundrum shows that new home completions in England totalled 135,000 last year and have averaged 140,000 over the last 20 years – well below the estimated national need of 250,000 homes a year.

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