As I plan for the year ahead I am trying to form an opinion of what may be some of the dominant themes for 2019 and beyond. It is proving to be somewhat harder than in previous years and more than anything I feel greater uncertainty than usual about the forces that will come to […]
I promised in my last blog (Decoding the Russian enigma) a further post dealing with my expectations for the Russian property markets. I have also been considering giving my thoughts on what to expect in general terms (i.e. they cannot be held against me in specific valuations!) for 2018 year end valuations. We are approaching […]
Russia seems to be hewing ever closer to Churchill’s aphorism: as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. It is increasingly difficult to predict what may happen next. A mixture of outside events and curious self-defeating actions, at least from an external perspective, have effects that are extremely uncertain. It may seem then […]
A European success story: the globalisation of offshore wind Dominic Szanto, Director and Head of Offshore Wind, JLL Energy and Infrastructure Although the first offshore wind farm was constructed in 1991, it has taken over twenty years for the industry to truly mature. By the end of 2017, there were over 18 gigawatts of wind […]
Russia’s nascent economic recovery from the 2014-2016 recession and recent stabilisation have been disrupted by fresh US sanctions. The April round has shifted the USD/RUB exchange rate by about 7% weaker, to c.62. The combined impact of the draft bill introduced by a number of US Senators led by Lindsey Graham on 1 August and […]
The US continues to impose new sanctions on Russia to threaten additional ones. A bill introduced last week by US Senator Linsey Graham includes a ban on new Russian sovereign debt purchases by US individuals and banks and on Russian state banks. This week, the US has imposed a new set of sanctions against Russia […]
It is like 2014 all over again… I have written three draft opinions in recent days – only for them to be overtaken by events. In the deluge of news and volatility I have but one message: DON’T PANIC I believe markets have overshot and will correct. We are already seeing the Russian stock market […]
The global economy went through another round of central bank policy meetings. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectedly hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 1.5-1.75%, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) stayed on hold, while the Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key rate, also by 25bp, to 7.25%. […]
The Bank of Russia (CBR) has just announced the Board decision to cut its key rate by 25bp, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was broadly anticipated, although following the January inflation print, some market analysts had called for a 50bp rate cut. Inflation dropped to a new historical low of 2.2% YoY in January […]
Transparency is something that impacts our day to day lives. Most of us probably take for granted just how easy it is to have information at our fingertips (or should I say smartphones). Take something like shopping, how many of you have been in a shop and used your smart phone to read buyer reviews […]
The announcement that Dong Energy has won the rights to develop the Borselle 1 & 2 offshore wind projects in the Netherlands did not come as a surprise to many observers: the Danish utility is the undisputed world leader in offshore wind development. However, the price at which it did so, €72.70 per megawatt-hour, was […]
Whichever news outlet you looked at over the Christmas period, one thing dominated… the weather: From a continual onslaught of flooding in the UK, severe storms and tornadoes in the U.S. to a searing heatwave in Australia. With the recent warning from NASA that the current El Nino weather phenomenon could be as bad as […]
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates by 25 basis points marks a significant turning point in the global economic cycle. It has been a long time coming, but the decision was carefully signalled and well executed, and there are good reasons why occupiers and investors in Europe should remain calm about this […]
The last time I attended EXPO Real it was the immediate aftermath of one of the worst financial crashes in history. The atmosphere was ‘distinctly chilly’. Real estate was at the heart of the banking sector’s troubles and the half-empty halls and stands echoed with the noise from TV screens, which cascaded the latest market […]
Despite the US Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise rates in September, the fixed income market still expects, with a 66% probability, that the Fed will raise rates within the next 6 months. In Europe, the rate hike cycle will come later given the problem of patchy economic growth and the specter of weak inflation. […]
With Grexit moving from outside possibility to likely outcome, what are the probable implications for property investment? Despite the threat of dramatic short term dislocation, my view is that real estate will hold up well. Here are my 5 predictions should Greece’s exit from the Euro become reality: 1. Contagion no longer a risk, despite […]
