As I plan for the year ahead I am trying to form an opinion of what may be some of the dominant themes for 2019 and beyond. It is proving to be somewhat harder than in previous years and more than anything I feel greater uncertainty than usual about the forces that will come to […]
I promised in my last blog (Decoding the Russian enigma) a further post dealing with my expectations for the Russian property markets. I have also been considering giving my thoughts on what to expect in general terms (i.e. they cannot be held against me in specific valuations!) for 2018 year end valuations. We are approaching […]
Russia’s nascent economic recovery from the 2014-2016 recession and recent stabilisation have been disrupted by fresh US sanctions. The April round has shifted the USD/RUB exchange rate by about 7% weaker, to c.62. The combined impact of the draft bill introduced by a number of US Senators led by Lindsey Graham on 1 August and […]
A short commentary on Russian Property Valuations
The Bank of Russia (CBR) has just announced the Board decision to cut its key rate by 25bp, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was broadly anticipated, although following the January inflation print, some market analysts had called for a 50bp rate cut. Inflation dropped to a new historical low of 2.2% YoY in January […]
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates by 25 basis points marks a significant turning point in the global economic cycle. It has been a long time coming, but the decision was carefully signalled and well executed, and there are good reasons why occupiers and investors in Europe should remain calm about this […]
The last time I attended EXPO Real it was the immediate aftermath of one of the worst financial crashes in history. The atmosphere was ‘distinctly chilly’. Real estate was at the heart of the banking sector’s troubles and the half-empty halls and stands echoed with the noise from TV screens, which cascaded the latest market […]
Despite the US Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise rates in September, the fixed income market still expects, with a 66% probability, that the Fed will raise rates within the next 6 months. In Europe, the rate hike cycle will come later given the problem of patchy economic growth and the specter of weak inflation. […]
With Grexit moving from outside possibility to likely outcome, what are the probable implications for property investment? Despite the threat of dramatic short term dislocation, my view is that real estate will hold up well. Here are my 5 predictions should Greece’s exit from the Euro become reality: 1. Contagion no longer a risk, despite […]
Two years ago, we wrote an article on Spain contrasting its footballing strength – highlighted by Real Madrid smashing the world transfer fee record for Gareth Bale – with its economic fragility. Real ended last season as Europe’s champions for a record 10th time, while rival Barcelona trumped them this year, winning a treble of […]
The upcoming general election is impacting on the Central London development market. But how is it manifesting itself and what are the other influences and trends? Well, developers seem to be carrying on regardless of the election, buoyed by the strong sales market of the past few years, although some say they have cut back […]
With the forthcoming UK election only weeks away, one of the topics you are likely to hear a lot more discussion about is devolution in the UK to urban areas. It may not have the headline grabbing ability of immigration or a possible EU referendum, but it will have an important impact on the way […]
The start of the year is a natural time to look forward. Despite optimism a year ago, 2014 turned out to be a mixed year for the economy. In the first few weeks of 2015, we have already seen a slump in oil prices, a soaring Swiss franc, Grexit, Brexit and promises of Eurozone QE […]
This is the question JLL Research is always forced to answer in the first few weeks of the New Year in front of several hundred property professionals. What is the outlook for UK property in 2015? Read our JLL UK 2015 Property Predictions here After 12 strong months for the UK economy and property market, […]
Concerns about the fragility of the Eurozone recovery have intensified since the spring. Against a background of conflict in Ukraine, slower export markets and deflationary forces at home, confidence has faltered. Growth continued in these markets, but it has been increasingly insipid. By the autumn, the fear was growing that the single currency area could […]
Has it been 4 years already? With just a few days to go until the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil, the question on everyone’s lips is ‘Who will emerge victorious? ‘ This year’s hosts are tipped to clinch the title, with fellow South Americans Argentina likely to be hot on their heels. But […]
