As I plan for the year ahead I am trying to form an opinion of what may be some of the dominant themes for 2019 and beyond. It is proving to be somewhat harder than in previous years and more than anything I feel greater uncertainty than usual about the forces that will come to […]
I promised in my last blog (Decoding the Russian enigma) a further post dealing with my expectations for the Russian property markets. I have also been considering giving my thoughts on what to expect in general terms (i.e. they cannot be held against me in specific valuations!) for 2018 year end valuations. We are approaching […]
Russia seems to be hewing ever closer to Churchill’s aphorism: as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. It is increasingly difficult to predict what may happen next. A mixture of outside events and curious self-defeating actions, at least from an external perspective, have effects that are extremely uncertain. It may seem then […]
Russia’s nascent economic recovery from the 2014-2016 recession and recent stabilisation have been disrupted by fresh US sanctions. The April round has shifted the USD/RUB exchange rate by about 7% weaker, to c.62. The combined impact of the draft bill introduced by a number of US Senators led by Lindsey Graham on 1 August and […]
The US continues to impose new sanctions on Russia to threaten additional ones. A bill introduced last week by US Senator Linsey Graham includes a ban on new Russian sovereign debt purchases by US individuals and banks and on Russian state banks. This week, the US has imposed a new set of sanctions against Russia […]
A short commentary on Russian Property Valuations
It is like 2014 all over again… I have written three draft opinions in recent days – only for them to be overtaken by events. In the deluge of news and volatility I have but one message: DON’T PANIC I believe markets have overshot and will correct. We are already seeing the Russian stock market […]
The global economy went through another round of central bank policy meetings. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectedly hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 1.5-1.75%, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) stayed on hold, while the Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key rate, also by 25bp, to 7.25%. […]
The Bank of Russia (CBR) has just announced the Board decision to cut its key rate by 25bp, from 7.75% to 7.50%. The move was broadly anticipated, although following the January inflation print, some market analysts had called for a 50bp rate cut. Inflation dropped to a new historical low of 2.2% YoY in January […]
Today Theresa May has triggered Article 50, slightly ahead of schedule. This is more than even the most enthusiastic Leaver could have hoped for at the start of the year. But as our recent report highlights, unusually smooth progress in these early stages is no guarantee of plain sailing ahead. UK road is clearer, but […]
A little over a year ago I made my first ever visit across that big pond and immediately upon visiting London, was told to “Mind the gap” by the polite, omnipresent voice on the Piccadilly line. Excuse me? You mean “Watch your step”, right? Utterly confused, I trekked on to JLL’s office for a friendly […]
Whichever news outlet you looked at over the Christmas period, one thing dominated… the weather: From a continual onslaught of flooding in the UK, severe storms and tornadoes in the U.S. to a searing heatwave in Australia. With the recent warning from NASA that the current El Nino weather phenomenon could be as bad as […]
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates by 25 basis points marks a significant turning point in the global economic cycle. It has been a long time coming, but the decision was carefully signalled and well executed, and there are good reasons why occupiers and investors in Europe should remain calm about this […]
Eight years since it was first floated, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has announced that it will issue its definitive guide to the new lease accounting standards by the end of 2015. The new standard has been in the pipeline long enough for many organisations to forget about its implications. And that’s no surprise. […]
Pressure to optimise costs, deliver value to shareholders and maintain a healthy balance sheet is firmly on the corporate agenda. Leadership is increasingly looking to real estate to satisfy these pressures whether through optimising costs or generating meaningful cash through the disposal of assets. JLL’s Global Corporate Real Estate Trends report reveals 40% of survey […]
Of all the analysis, opinion and comment that has emerged from Tesco’s recent announcement of record breaking £6.4bn losses, one snippet has stuck in my mind. Tesco offers a bewildering array of 28 varieties of tomato ketchup, while in Aldi there is just one choice, in one size. It may be too simplistic to blame all Tesco’s […]
