Forecasting: It’s a funny old game

Has it been 4 years already? With just a few days to go until the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil, the question on everyone’s lips is ‘Who will emerge victorious? ‘ This year’s hosts are tipped to clinch the title, with fellow South Americans Argentina likely to be hot on their heels. But the Europeans aren’t out of the running completely. Current champions Spain and a strong German team have a chance of bringing the cup back to European soil.

Unfortunately, here at JLL we don’t predict world cup winners (not officially anyway!). But we do forecast winners and losers in the European property market. Let’s take a look at how our latest European office rental forecasts stack up against each nation’s footballing prospects:


Chances of World Cup victory: 7-1

2014 Madrid office rental growth: 1.0%

While Spain beat off the opposition in South Africa, things have not been so upbeat at home. As one of the biggest casualties of the financial crisis, their economic has only just emerged from a deep recession and record levels of unemployment remain a problem . But after five years of falling office rents, a turnaround is expected in 2014 with prime rents in Madrid and Barcelona forecast to bounce back over the next five years. If the Spanish team can perform as well as their office market then they are surely in with a shot at the title.


Chances of World Cup victory: 7-1

2014 Frankfurt office rental growth: 2.9%

If there’s one thing you can admire the Germans for, it’s their consistency. After only once failing to make the quarter finals, a similarly dependable performance is expected from their office markets. Rents in the Frankfurt office market will show the strongest performance, while other cities such as Hamburg and Munich will also see significant increases.


Chances of World Cup victory: 34-1

2014 Amsterdam office rental growth: 0.0%

The Amsterdam office market has been very subdued, with no rental growth since 2008. While this looks set to improve over the next five years, growth will still remain minimal and looks unlikely to reach the rates seen in other European cities. The Dutch team’s prospects looks similarly subdued this year, as the finalists of four years ago have struggled to find form in recent years.


Chances of World Cup victory: 25-1

2014 Paris office rental growth: 3.5%

Paris saw falling rents in 2013 but the outlook for 2014 onwards looks considerably brighter. While rental growth in the La Défense area will remain muted, the CBD area of Paris is forecast to record substantial rental growth over the next five years.  Although Paris may be home to the continent’s largest office market, the smart money is not on  the French team to win the cup this year, because while their team is strong, they ultimately lack the quality of the French side that lifted the cup in 1998.


Chances of World Cup victory: 25-1

2014 London West End office rental growth: 9.5%

Over the last 20 years, the London office market has been one of the better performers in Europe and the next five years are no exception. Both the City and West End markets will show annual growth in excess of 4% and will be among the top 5 markets in Europe. However, this strong performance looks unlikely to be mirrored in the England team’s efforts this year, with most expecting a second round exit.

So there you have it, a brief overview of our office market outlook for some of the largest cities in Europe, as well as an even shorter summary of their footballing prospects. For more information on our full range of European forecasts across all sectors, please contact Andrew or Shirley in the EMEA Market Intelligence team. For information on the ins and outs of International football, we recommend you contact someone slightly more informed…