Decoding the Russian enigma

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Russia seems to be hewing ever closer to Churchill’s aphorism: as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. It is increasingly difficult to predict what may happen next. A mixture of outside events and curious self-defeating actions, at least from an external perspective, have effects that are extremely uncertain. It may seem then […]

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Russia: New old challenges

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Russia’s nascent economic recovery from the 2014-2016 recession and recent stabilisation have been disrupted by fresh US sanctions. The April round has shifted the USD/RUB exchange rate by about 7% weaker, to c.62. The combined impact of the draft bill introduced by a number of US Senators led by Lindsey Graham on 1 August and […]

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More US sanctions on Russia

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The US continues to impose new sanctions on Russia to threaten additional ones. A bill introduced last week by US Senator Linsey Graham includes a ban on new Russian sovereign debt purchases by US individuals and banks and on Russian state banks. This week, the US has imposed a new set of sanctions against Russia […]

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Russia – separating noise from reality

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It is like 2014 all over again… I have written three draft opinions in recent days – only for them to be overtaken by events. In the deluge of news and volatility I have but one message: DON’T PANIC I believe markets have overshot and will correct. We are already seeing the Russian stock market […]

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